Well, my last post was a jumbled mess. I am trying to communicate something and I am not doing a very good job of it.
My buddy, Blagger reminded me of that in his answer to my previous post.
So, I am going to make it worse by expanding on it in this one…lol
I think, what I was trying to talk about was more about identification of a hand/opponent than the actual suck out. Blagger made a good point. If you aren’t in the big pot to be sucked out in the first place you aren’t playing right.
By definition, being “sucked out” means you went in with the best hand. What more can you ask for than to be in the big pot with the best hand going in? Isn’t that the point? Doyle even teaches that. He will go in big pots sometimes knowing he is behind but he may gamble if he has a chance because winning the big pot is one of the keys to successful poker.
I want to try to minimize my exposure to being sucked out on. I want to learn more about identifying whether or not I am in a situation where I can be sucked out.
Lets try a example. I was playing in a League game the other day. I was in late position and watching. A League player (not going to name them because I don’t want them to change their style) was utg and raised about 6 times the BB. I knew right then and there that player was on PP J’s or PP 10′s. (well, not exactly J’s or 10′s but a med/high pp).
So, when it was my turn to act, there was no way I was going to play anything unless it was PP Q’s or higher. A K is a race with me behind so even if I had A K I probably would have folded. (I say probably because it would have depended on how much alcoholic stupidity I had consumed..lol). That decision keeps me out of a suck out scenario.
On the opposite side of that fence, I want to get better at trying to identify what kind of hand I am up against when I am the one with the PP 10′s and I get called. So, lets say I am the one that raised with PP 10′s and I get a caller. The button calls the raise, everyone else folds. What do you think?
My thought process before the flop hits would be something like this (this is general, assume chip stacks are about the same and player competency is about the same. Chip stack differences and player competency WILL effect my decision).
My first thought is my opponent isn’t on PP Q’s or higher. If so, they probably would have re-raised (maybe PP A’s being slow played but usually that doesn’t happen). I also wouldn’t put them on middle to low suited connectors. PP 2-8, probably not. So, I figure I am up against A K, A Q, A K suited, A Q suited, K Q suited, maybe A J suited. So, since I am first to act after the flop I will need to consider my thinking.
If the flop comes 3 cards under 10′s rainbow – all in. ( this is where I could be setting myself up for a “suck out”) I don’t want any high cards coming out on the turn or river. I don’t want possible back door flush draws either. Usually, the all-in bet will win the hand. However if you opponent thinks your bluffing or I misread the hand, I may get called. I really don’t want A K calling. I am ahead in the hand but A K has 6 outs to “suck out”. (Ok, Blagger is going to be all over this one cause he is going to want to know how much is in the pot, how much the bet was, so he can figure pot odds, etc.). If he calls, I am happy with my chances and will hopefully prevail.
What if the flop comes K, rag, rag, rainbow? I am first to act. What do I do? This is where a lot of beginners make a mistake. They check.
As I mentioned above, there are a lot of possible hands that my opponent can be playing. How are you supposed to “narrow the field” by checking? Checking gives you no additional information on what you are up against. In this scenario, I would bet. Not all-in or anything but a “good” bet. Remember, you pre-flop raised. What your opponent does with the bet will usually give you some real good information.
If he just calls, I would narrow down his possible hands to a K with a ”weak” kicker like a Q or a J, or maybe another PP and hoping to catch. I think A K would re-raise. I wouldn’t put them on 2 pair because they probably wouldn’t have called a big pre-flop raise with K crap. If you get re-raised, you are probably beat and you can fold.
Now you’re thinking “Shit, he called. Now what do I do?”.
Ok, lets say the turn is a 10. Yee Haw, you just hit trips. Now what do you do? In my opinion a lot of people make a mistake here with a check because they are trying to trap. Look up two paragraphs and see what hand I could narrow down with a call. K Q or K J. If your opponent is on one of those hands, a check just let him see a free card to see if he can hit a str8. If you check, and he goes all-in on you, you are going to call. (this is another place where you set yourself up for a “suck out”). Your opponent probably won’t put you on trips so a check would, to him, possibly show weakness, and he may force the issue with a medium kicker and a str8 draw.
So, I would have bet the trips, hard. To try to avoid a “suck out” call.
This is what I am talking about. Trying to minimize situations where I put myself in hands that make “suck outs” more possible.
See, I was right. It got longer and more confusing….lol
Anyway, hopefully I will see some of the Skype crew soon. I miss all of ya!
Take care.
Comments are always welcome……
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