Big pot suck outs – continued

Well, my last post was a jumbled mess. I am trying to communicate something and I am not doing a very good job of it.

My buddy, Blagger reminded me of that in his answer to my previous post.

So, I am going to make it worse by expanding on it in this one…lol

I think, what I was trying to talk about was more about identification of a hand/opponent than the actual suck out. Blagger made a good point. If you aren’t in the big pot to be sucked out in the first place you aren’t playing right.

By definition, being “sucked out” means you went in with the best hand. What more can you ask for than to be in the big pot with the best hand going in? Isn’t that the point? Doyle even teaches that. He will go in big pots sometimes knowing he is behind but he may gamble if he has a chance because winning the big pot is one of the keys to successful poker.

I want to try to minimize my exposure to being sucked out on. I want to learn more about identifying whether or not I am in a situation where I can be sucked out.

Lets try a example. I was playing in a League game the other day. I was in late position and watching. A League player (not going to name them because I don’t want them to change their style) was utg and raised about 6 times the BB. I knew right then and there that player was on PP J’s or PP 10’s. (well, not exactly J’s or 10’s but a med/high pp).

So, when it was my turn to act, there was no way I was going to play anything unless it was PP Q’s or higher. A K is a race with me behind so even if I had A K I probably would have folded. (I say probably because it would have depended on how much alcoholic stupidity I had consumed..lol). That decision keeps me out of a suck out scenario.

On the opposite side of that fence, I want to get better at trying to identify what kind of hand I am up against when I am the one with the PP 10’s and I get called. So, lets say I am the one that raised with PP 10’s and I get a caller. The button calls the raise, everyone else folds. What do you think?

My thought process before the flop hits would be something like this (this is general, assume chip stacks are about the same and player competency is about the same. Chip stack differences and player competency WILL effect my decision).

My first thought is my opponent isn’t on PP Q’s or higher. If so, they probably would have re-raised (maybe PP A’s being slow played but usually that doesn’t happen). I also wouldn’t put them on middle to low suited connectors. PP 2-8, probably not. So, I figure I am up against A K, A Q, A K suited, A Q suited, K Q suited, maybe A J suited. So, since I am first to act after the flop I will need to consider my thinking.

If the flop comes 3 cards under 10’s rainbow – all in. ( this is where I could be setting myself up for a “suck out”) I don’t want any high cards coming out on the turn or river. I don’t want possible back door flush draws either. Usually, the all-in bet will win the hand. However if you opponent thinks your bluffing or I misread the hand, I may get called. I really don’t want A K calling. I am ahead in the hand but A K has 6 outs to “suck out”. (Ok, Blagger is going to be all over this one cause he is going to want to know how much is in the pot, how much the bet was, so he can figure pot odds, etc.). If he calls, I am happy with my chances and will hopefully prevail.

What if the flop comes K, rag, rag, rainbow? I am first to act. What do I do? This is where a lot of beginners make a mistake. They check.

As I mentioned above, there are a lot of possible hands that my opponent can be playing. How are you supposed to “narrow the field” by checking? Checking gives you no additional information on what you are up against. In this scenario, I would bet. Not all-in or anything but a “good” bet. Remember, you pre-flop raised. What your opponent does with the bet will  usually give you some real good information.

If he just calls, I would narrow down his possible hands to a K with a ”weak” kicker like a Q or a J, or maybe another PP and hoping to catch. I think A K would re-raise. I wouldn’t put them on 2 pair because they probably wouldn’t have called a big pre-flop raise with K crap. If you get re-raised, you are probably beat and you can fold.

Now you’re thinking “Shit, he called. Now what do I do?”. 

Ok, lets say the turn is a 10. Yee Haw, you just hit trips. Now what do you do? In my opinion a lot of people make a mistake here with a check because they are trying to trap. Look up two paragraphs and see what hand I could narrow down with a call. K Q or K J. If your opponent is on one of those hands, a check just let him see a free card to see if he can hit a str8. If you check, and he goes all-in on you, you are going to call. (this is another place where you set yourself up for a “suck out”). Your opponent probably won’t put you on trips so a check would, to him, possibly show weakness, and he may force the issue with a medium kicker and a str8 draw.

So, I would have bet the trips, hard. To try to avoid a “suck out” call.

This is what I am talking about. Trying to minimize situations where I put myself in hands that make “suck outs” more possible.

See, I was right. It got longer and more confusing….lol

Anyway, hopefully I will see some of the Skype crew soon. I miss all of ya!

Take care.

Comments are always welcome……     

*************************************************************

Big pot suckouts

Yeah, I know. Its been a long time in between posts. However, looking at the other links here, it hasn’t been as long as some.

I was thinking this morning about big pot suck outs.

It happens to all of us AND we have done it to others.

The reason I was thinking about it was I was playing in a 7stud h/l SNG the other day, (not my normal game but I am trying to get interested in the game again and thought I would try something different), and I sucked out a big pot which took someone out and the others at the table weren’t too happy about it. I don’t remember the exact details of the hand. I remember I had 2 3 suited in the hole and on the flop I had 2 pair. The other guy had a K with 2 rags showing. He bet real hard so I figured him for trip K’s. To make a long story short, I hit another 3, got a FH and took him out. (no low hand).

I had the hand figured correctly, he did have trip K’s but I chased a little and here is where I came up with a couple of reasons you get sucked out on big pots.

I should have lost that hand and more often than not, I will. So, I was thinking 2 things. How to avoid getting myself in that position when I suck out, what is my opponent thinking when he sucks out on me.

1. Donkey – Ok – obviously you have the total Donkey player who will call on anything. This isn’t the type of suck out I am talking about. I am talking about the one where the player has been pretty “stable” then all of a sudden – suck out.

2. Not looking ahead – This is what happened in my example above. After the flop I had 2 pair. When the guy bet hard, I read the hand right and put him on trips. Then I said to myself “I’ll call and take one more card to see if it improves my hand”. I had a shot at a low hand and if I read it right, he didn’t. I looked at this from a one more card perspective, not a whole hand perspective. I didn’t look at his chipstack, how much I would be invested with the call, what the pot odds for us would be IF I called, and what would happen if the next card just improved my hand and would add more outs. So I called and, if I remember right, I got a Q which didn’t improve my hand. But, my opponent was short stacked so he went all-in. I called because it wasn’t that much more and sucked out.

3. Not believing you – I think sometimes, I get sucked out on, or suck out others because they represent a hand and I don’t believe them. For example, a A K J rainbow flop. You have JJ so you hit trips. You opponent bets like he has the str8. You don’t believe him so you call. You opponent has the Q 10 but the board pairs and you suck out. Most of the time you will loose that hand but you got lucky and hit. Previous play, number of hands played, betting patterns, etc. could all add up to making the decision on whether or not you think your opponent is bluffing. 

This isn’t a very cohesive post. I am rambling a little here. My point of the whole post is to try to learn more about why I do things in certain situations so I can learn from them and not do them again.

I don’t want to be labeled as a Donkey and I don’t think I am. However, I WILL gamble and I will call you if I think you are screwing around with me.

What have I learned. Don’t stop thinking when you are in a hand. Think of the whole hand, not just the moment or the next card. Also, be patient. Sometimes you have to lay down a really strong hand even when it doesn’t look like you should.

I don’t get upset anymore (well, most of the time anyway) when I get sucked out on. I don’t care whether or not someone hit their “one outter”. What’s done is done. What I want to get better at is not getting myself in those situations in the first place. If you aren’t in it, it won’t happen to you.

Any thoughts/comments?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Technology sucks sometimes

Well, I haven’t posted in a while.

I have been having problems with the computer. It was one of those things where I kept getting the BSD (Blue screen of Death) at different times with no clear cut indication of where the problem was.

Being as stubborn as I am, there was no way I was going to let this thing beat me.

I uninstalled software, re-installed it, tested, downloaded utility programs, messed around with configurations all to no avail.

Finally, with the help of Blagger and Dog, I found the problem.

The problem ended up being that one of my 1gb ram chips was bad. I have 3gb of ram in this machine. I pulled them all out and put them in one at a time (advice from Dog) and found that one of them was bad. Blagger pointed me in the right direction, Dog helped me with the troubleshooting process.

So, I can now get back to it.

As far as Poker goes, I played a little Friday night. Those of you on Skype with me will know it was a challenge for me to even play. My 22 year old daughter had some friends over who proceeded to have a great LOUD time at my house.

I did my best but when I can’t concentrate on the game, I shouldn’t even play. You loose too many insights and tells by not paying attention which will cost you money.

I would be playing today but I have to leave in a few minutes to go to a Wake. I really hate going to those things but you gotta do what you gotta do.

Maybe later today I will be back and be able to play a little.

So, until then, a heartfelt thanks to Blagger and Dog for the help and good luck at the tables.

Bad beat

I played at my Live tourny last night.

I hadn’t played for a couple of weeks so I figured I would go over and play.

There were probably somewhere between 60-80 players there.

For some reason, my aggression factor is lower in live games than it is on line. I don’t know why, it just is. I think it may have something to do with the type of play at that live tourny. I have seen time and time again where there is an obvious hand on the board (3 suited cards on the flop, 3 connectors on the flop, A and 2 low cards) and the intial raiser would bet but 3 other people stay in the hand by just calling. You might be saying to yourself “just cause the flop looks bad, that doesn’t mean the initial raiser hit his hand”. Of course, that could possibly be the case but with three other “callers” someone probably hit something.

I guess the point I am trying to make is at that tourny, it can be quite difficult to get people off a hand so being aggressive has no advantage.

This happens on line too. When it does, I sit back an wait. I wait for the hand thats going to win me the big pot.

Eventually, the Chaser Monkeys will get taken out and hopefully you will have won a couple of pots to stay around and get down to the “real” game.

People talk about on line poker and how it must be rigged because of suck outs, bad river cards, etc.

Last night at my table we had a hand where one player had PP A’s, one had PP K’s, and one player had PP Q’s. The Q’s won cause a Q hit on the river.

Remember, this is live so the hands are dealt by real people, cards need to be shuffled, etc. so the number of hands per hour is a lot smaller than on line play.

So, when I got PP A’s and went all-in and had one caller, I was a little nervous. I felt better when the guy turned over PP K’s.

Then, I made a mistake. I told the guy “If you spike a King, I am going to come over there and kick your ass”. Flip over the river card and you guessed it, a King hit.

Larry (Dog) knows about this. Never say what you DON’T want to hit. Always say what you want to hit.

So, I went home in 20th place to comments like “That was sick”, and “That sucked”.

I didn’t get mad or go over and kick the guys ass. If I were him, I woulda called a all-in with K’s too so I don’t blame him for being in the hand. It sucks the K hit but if everything went the way of the odds, it wouldn’t be as fun, would it?

That’s why they call them odds. It isn’t for sure.

Well, hopefully this trend won’t continue. It will happen from time to time and I am willing to accept that, It just better not happen a lot!

See ya all later….

Good luck on the felt

Summer doldrums

Well, I don’t have a lot of Poker news, insights, suggestions etc.

The reason for that is that I really haven’t been playing too much. Yes. I still hook up with the Skype crew once in a while and play the occasional SNG or small Tourny, but other than that, nothing.

I haven’t been winning every one and I haven’t been getting beat by bad beats at inopportune times, just “average”.

My bankroll is going up in small amounts and not down so I should be happy with that.

I just haven’t had the “feeling” lately.

Last night, I went over to the computer logged on to Skype and checked to see who was on. Ash was on, Dog, Mike, and Netty. I just sat there for a few minutes thinking if I even wanted to let them know I was on.

Nothing against them, I really like hanging with them. I just didn’t have any energy or drive to play.

The last time I played was Sunday. It was later in the evening and I missed the league games but I played in a few SNG’s and played in a Stud tourny. Actually, the Stud tourny was a nice change of pace. I made it to the money but didn’t win. Making it to the money was good for me since I rarely play the game though.

Anyway, I was sitting at the computer thinking ”do I log in or don’t I log in”.

I ended up not logging in. I left the computer and went over to watch some TV.

My wife and I got invited to a friend house in Northern Wisconsin this weekend. Maybe I should go and take a break. The funny thing is that their house is about 10 min. from a Casino..hmmmmm

The weekend is quickly approaching. Maybe I will have built up some energy by then. either way, I will get on Skype and hang with the crew.

Good Luck on the felt. 

Feeling old today

I won’t be around on Saturday (7/28/07). I am going to attend my 30th High School reunion.

Now, if that doesn’t make you feel old….

 

It seems like just yesterday I was running around causing trouble, drinking too much (ok, that one hasn’t changed..lol), and feeling imortal.

Now, I get to go see how many of us are Gandma’s and Grandpa’s….lol

Luckily, I am not one yet but I don’t think it is too far away.

Anyway, I may be around Sunday, recuperating….

Poker wise, I haven’t played a lot.

I did play in the VIP Vegas League game on Sunday and won another ticket. I have three now. I guess I need to schedule a couple.

Last night, I met up with Dog on Skype. I only played one Monkey filled $2 SNG at Abs. I think I went out in 5th. Dog was playing a Omaha H/L freeroll at Poker Nordica when I left. He was doing pretty well, I don’t know what place he finished in.

They say aggression wins in Poker. I agree with that statement when playing “normal” people. But, as I was watching the Monkey’s, a thought came to me. How do you play aggressively against a Monkey?

I will have to give this some thought and maybe post about it next.

Good Luck to everyone this weekend. Hopefully, I will be able to see ya sometime this weekend.

Monkey Talk 101

   

For those of us who play Poker with the intent of playing the game correctly and attempt to learn more along the way, the following is a glossary of terms used by the Monkeys at the tables.

Hopefully, this will aid you in determining what is happening at the tables so you can clarify your next course of action.

Just so this post doesn’t get too long, I will break it up into sections. The first section will be about identification. The next will be about communication.

 

First, let’s define a Monkey.

mon·key

In Poker, a medium-sized primate found mostly in low buy in tournys and SNG’s. Monkeys include baboons, marmosets, capuchins, macaques, guenons, and tamarins, but exclude apes, lemurs, and tarsiers. These primates typically have a disregard for the game of Poker and play the game in an unusual way. The Monkey’s brain size does not allow room for starting hand requirements, pot odds calculations, or hand odds calculations so they are extremely dangerous at times when cornered. If you are not careful, a Monkey can take all your chips before you know what hit you because of their atypical play. Communication between Monkeys has developed into special terms which non-Monkeys in general, do not understand.

 

Now that we know what we are up against, we need to discuss the typical Monkey identifiers. Since we can’t actually see them, we need to use other “clues” to help us target and note the aforementioned primates.

Identification usually only takes the first few hands of any Poker tourney or SNG. Being Monkeys, they can’t help not identifying themselves quickly. So, here are a few typical examples of Monkeys being at your table.

 

1. All-in first hand pre-flop – This is the quickest identifier because it takes place in the first hand. If you run into this situation, the best thing to do is fold. There is a good reason for this. If the all-in Monkey is in early position, this play will also help identify OTHER Monkeys at your table. A true blue Monkey will not be able to lay down any hand in this situation so you may see other callers. The detriment to this situation however is that after the hand is over, one of the Monkeys will have a lot of chips. This shouldn’t last too long though because Monkeys have a hard time holding on to a lot of chips and they will be dispersed again soon.
2. The chasing Monkey – The chaser can be identified by watching them play a full hand. The chaser will call almost any bet all the way to the river, and then fold. The level of “Monkeyness” can be determined during this hand by the flop and opposing players betting. A high level Monkey will call bets 5 or 10 times the size of the blind all the way to the river. A high level Monkey will also call bets with a board where they only have 4 outs or less after the flop.
3. The chatter box Monkey – This Monkey normally identifies themselves by announcing to the table either before the tourney starts or right after it starts that they will crush everyone at the table and win.
4. The silent Monkey – These Monkeys tend to be a little elusive since they are very quiet. One of the best ways to identify them is to look at the hand history while playing if they were involved to see what type of cards they are playing. Calling raises in middle position with cards like a K 2 off or 6 10 suited are indicators of silent Monkey play.
5. The hidden Monkey – This is the most difficult one to identify. These Monkeys are at the top of the Monkey chain. They are hard to identify because they hide their Monkeyness at the beginning. It is only later in the tourney or SNG that the pull to be a Monkey becomes unbearable and they crack. These Monkeys can be quite dangerous because sometimes they have enough chips to pull Monkey type plays and can take you out. Caution should be used when running into this Monkey. One can only hope that the timing is correct and your opposition runs into this one first so they can be identified and dealt with.
6. Drunk Monkey – The combination of alcohol and Monkeyness can create the most dangerous primate out there. Great care should be taken when coming across this animal. Normally, the only thing that will kill or wound this Monkey is the “Nuts”. If you have identified this Monkey as being at your table, hopefully he is acting before you so you can fold anything except the Nuts because he/she is quite capable of playing any 2 cards and sucking out on a lot of hands. The best case scenario is other players who are not Monkeys have also identified him/her and there is an unspoken agreement between you to take him/her out. You will know this because other non-Monkeys will typically not aggressively play against each other until Drunk Monkey is taken out.

 

These are the ones I have learned about. If there are more, please help all of us by posting comments about the ones you have run into so we can all benefit.

 

It is time we try to take control of the tables back from the Monkeys so we can play in peace.

 

Next post, communications. How do they talk to each other?

     

  

Well, I am back

I am back from a well deserved Holiday in Florida with my 2 sisters and most of the kids (2 were missing because of other commitments).

There was no Internet access the whole time we were there.

Of course, we did sneak in a little live poker one night. We played a couple of $5 buy in mini tourny’s. I got second in both and got my money back plus a little.

One of the guys playing was fairly good (too aggressive with crap cards) and my Nephew who is pretty good just didn’t get any cards.

As with most home games, there was a lot of Monkey play and you have to be careful not to get sucked out but all in all, it was fun.

I will work on posting some pics of the alligators, shrimp boil, rope swing, and other festivities when I get some time and maybe Paulies help. I have to go to Chicago for a couple of days on business. If I stay over down there. I will try to get on Skype.

I also have a Hot Water Heater incident I will discuss in more detail later.

I have been reading the blogs lately about sites, rewarding Monkey play, etc.

I’ll tell ya, I have a hard time believing a Poker site is going to reward stupid play just to keep games moving or because you just took money from their site.

I realize it is hard to accept and logically reason why people are winning hands when you go in with the best but maybe it has a lot to do with perspective.

I have not formulated all of my thoughts on this yet but one of the analogies I think of is like this.

Lets say you are interested in buying a new type of car. Prior to considering the type of car you want, you don’t remember seeing any in your area. Then, once you decide on the type of car you want, you realize there are a lot more cars in your area that you never noticed before. You don’t conscientiously think about it but you notice them more anyway.

Maybe this is type of thinking is part of what everyone is experiencing. Everyone is now focused either conscientiously  or sub conscientiously on the “bad beat” sceniario at a particular site.

How many times prior to the “bad beat” did you win when you should have? Maybe you have expereinced “bad beats” at other sites but haven’t noticed as much. 

This, of course, does not apply to not getting cards as in Lippy’s case. Not getting cards is just not getting cards.

I just have a hard time believing that out of the  thousands of players that play there, they picked out Lippy, decided he needed to loose, and adjusted the RNG just so HE didn’t get cards AND can’t win like the others once in a while with a 1 or 2 outer.

See what I mean?

As far as messing with the RNG, I go back to the age old question of Why? Why would a site risk everything to take a few $2, $5, SNG’s from someone that “should have” won and give it to someone who shouldn’t have won? Either way, they are paying out. What would be the benefit?

It is a very interesting topic.

Right now, I have to go and get ready for my trip.

Give me your thoughts and comments.

Thanks,

Short Update

Well, I thought I would post a small update from the last couple of days.

It has turned to Summer around here. The weather is nice and I finally got the boat launched. So, any nice days will take away from my Poker time because we will be out cruising, fishing, and drinking on the Lake.

I played in the final SNG Challenge game last night. I got third place. Anne Marie (gotmewrong) won. She did a good job. Blagger showed up for a little while. He has been quite sick for a while.

I hope he gets better soon.

Dog and I played a couple of SNG’s after the Challenge. I didn’t make the money in any of them. There was one point during the tourny that was pretty wierd. We were watching the hand and the flop came. Right after the flop I told Dog the next card was going to be the 3 of hearts. The turn comes and it is the 3 of hearts. So then I tell him the river is going to be the J of diamonds. Boom! The river shows and it is the J of diamonds. I don’t know what the odds are of me guessing 2 cards in a row like that but I bet they are pretty high. If I could do it all the time, I would be making some good money.

I am going up north to help a friend this weekend. Hopefully, I will be back Sunday but Sunday is also Fathers Day in the U.S. so I may not get to play.

Monday night is Live Play night and on Tuesday I need to go to West Virginia on a business trip.

So, the pickins look slim for Poker.

I will do my best to hook up with some of the Skype Crew to play some games.

Until then…Good Luck at the tables

3rd Chance?

I went and played live last night. I hadn’t played for a couple of weeks so I thought I would go.

I actually ended up at a pretty tough table. Everyone sitting there I had played before except for one person. All of them are pretty solid players so I knew I was in for a challenge.

One of the players is a pretty aggressive player. If you want to be in a hand with him you better be ready to call raises and no checking after the flop.

Luckily, I started catching some good cards.

It’s funny, the table started out aggressive and I didn’t play the first few hands. After I started catching some cards, I found myself being more aggressive than usual. I guess I picked up on the table dynamic and shifted my play a little.

People talk about on line being rigged because of how hands play. Last night I had pocket K’s twice in three hands. This just shows you that weird stuff happens live too.

Anyway, I was going ok until after the second hour then the deck went ice cold on me.

I ended up 20th out of about 80 so not too bad.

I was on my way out the door when I was asked if I wanted to play 3rd chance.

The tourny’s have what they call a 2nd chance. 2nd chance is for the first 10 people knocked out. Those 10 can start a new game and the winner can get a couple of points.

3rd chance is a game where there are 10 people but it costs $20.00 to play.

I figured, what the heck and gave it a shot. I ended up second in that one and won $40.00. (First got $60.00). I made a mistake in heads up and lost most of my chips which cost me the game but other than that, I played pretty good.

The extra $20.00 probably barely covered the cost of the beer I drank while I was there.lol

So, all in all, I played poker for 5 hours live and at the end, covered my costs.

Not too bad…..

__________________________________________________________________